Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play
A key narrative of England's top flight season so far is the decline of scoring in open play and how teams are finding goals more from dead-ball situations as an alternative.
When we compare goal sources to matchday 11 last season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 fewer altogether.
If we look at the broader view, efforts on goal sides are producing have seen a staggering 370 fewer in open-play than this time previously.
Even with the significant rise in dead-ball scores, there have actually been only two additional shots produced from these situations excluding penalties, demonstrating the proficiency sides are at discovering methods to net from set-pieces.
Goal Averages Tell the Tale
The 301 goals notched in 110 games up to now calculates at 2.74 scores each match, if maintained for the whole season could be the lowest for since 2020-21, back in 2020-21 (2.69).
But just 196 goals scored in open play equates to 1.78 each match and is heading to be the smallest for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
The 2009-10 season is also the unique EPL season to witness scoring more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 each match (0.79 average).
Which Sides Bear the Most Responsibility?
Regarding goals scored from open-play, Wolves have recorded the largest decrease, netting just four in 11 games, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.
Apart from Wolves, the EPL's fall in open play goals is very much a London phenomenon, with five of the London's seven clubs recording five or more less scores from open-play than the previous year.
In fairness, this is primarily due to their scoring numerous goals at the beginning of the previous campaign rather than them really struggling to convert in open play this campaign.
Conversely Man City have recorded the most significant jump, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored so far originating in open play.
Set-Play Proficiency
We've compared the promoted teams with the teams that went down they replaced. Sunderland the Black Cats have netted three more goals in open-play than Southampton did in matchday 11 leading to demotion last season.
When it comes to goals scored from dead-ball situations (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and Chelsea have seen the largest rise, with the two clubs compensating for the five less goals that they've produced in open-play with an equal amount from set-pieces.
Manchester United have scored twice as many goals from set-pieces as they achieved in the 11 games the previous campaign prior to their coach took over, while the Black Cats again have been more successful at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.
City seem unaware of the trend about scoring more from set-plays, as they've netted a reduction of three than last season, similar to the Reds, although that might be down to the tactical shift they have tried to implement.
League-Wide Trends
Six clubs – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – represent this term's leading trend-followers by recording fewer goals from open-play and more from set-pieces, while Manchester City stand as the sole team to go against the grain to date by performing the contrary.
It will be interesting to watch if clubs persist to depend greatly on set-plays as the season goes on or if they rediscover their all-round creativity and commence converting additional scores in open-play too.
