Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
