Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
