Daily Homicides in the nation Fall 37% In President Sheinbaum, Per Government Figures

The typical count of daily homicides each month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new government figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have advised that homicide data may not signal enhanced countrywide safety.

Marked Drop in Daily Figures

There was an average of almost 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded over these past months is very notable,” the President said, noting that last month the least number of murders were documented for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily military efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Greater collaboration between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is notably true considering the rise in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not useful for gauging the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to accurately identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also problematic because it could mask days when there were particularly high numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean makes high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for major offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

But in spite of these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas said.