A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
